Overall, our AI-powered insights using 5 years of historical foot traffic data predicts a drop in visits of -1.62% overall for retailers in the United States. Keep scrolling for the full details on your retail category and competitors.
Methodology
- Our report looks at extensive foot traffic data over the last 5 years.
- We take the correlating peaks and troughs in the data to predict Black Friday performance.
- Using these indicators we can predict with a relative level of accuracy a brand/category performance in 2024.
- We only include US based chains with over 40 open stores in 2024.
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Our Black Friday 2024 predictions
Here’s a quick summary of our predictions and findings:
- Total retail store visits will be down -1.62% overall in the United States
- New Balance, a shoe retailer, is our biggest winner of all the brands in our model with a predicted +24.61% Black Friday growth.
- Jewelry stores will see the largest overall increase in foot traffic compared to 2023 with an expected increase of +2.53%.
- Department Stores will see a drop of -5.48% compared to last year’s Black Friday.
- Finish Line, a shoe retailer, we predict will see a drop of -15.09%.
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Retail category predictions
When looking on a category level we can predict the following for this year’s Black Friday:
- Jewelry stores: +2.53%
- Florists: +1.67%
- Book Stores: +1.67%
- Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores: +1.67%
- Shoe Stores: -2.99%
- Clothing Accessories Stores: -5.20%
- Department Stores: -5.48%
Overall, consumers are shifting their focus in this year’s Black Friday sale’s away from department stores and clothing stores to find bargains at jewelry, florist, book, and beer stores. Consumers are looking to treat themselves or find holiday gifts at bargain prices.
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Retail brand predictions
While many retail categories look set to struggle to pull in shoppers this year, some brands are bringing in the numbers despite the struggle across the retail industry.
- Biggest winner: New Balance is our biggest winner of all the brands in our model with a predicted +24.61% Black Friday growth, bucking the trend of shoe retailers which we predict have a drop of -2.99% in foot traffic this year.
- Biggest drop: Finish Line, a shoe retailer, we predict will see a drop of -15.09%.
- We will discuss some stand out brands below:
New Balance
New Balance is the standout winner, possibly due to:
- Shifts in fashion trends: The brand has successfully positioned itself as both a functional and fashionable choice. Retro-style sneakers and “dad shoe” trends have been especially popular among Gen Z and Millennials.
- Marketing & Collaborations: Recent high-profile collaborations (e.g., with fashion designers or influencers) could have boosted brand awareness and desirability. Athleisure
- Boom: The ongoing demand for comfortable, versatile footwear post-pandemic has played to New Balance’s strengths.
- Product Availability: Its robust supply chain management could make it a more reliable Black Friday choice compared to competitors.
Pandora
For jewelry retailers, Pandora is always a go-to on Black Friday as many consumers drop in for a good deal. This year is no exception and the brand, we predict, has increased its foot traffic volume by +16.15% since 2023.
Pandora reflects the growth in jewelry stores, which might be driven by:
- Accessible Luxury: Pandora’s affordable yet premium-looking jewelry appeals to gift buyers who want something meaningful without breaking the bank.
- Personalization Push: Charms and custom pieces offer a personal touch, making them perfect for holiday gifting.
- Economic Resilience: Consumers may splurge on smaller luxury items during economic uncertainty, boosting mid-tier jewelry brands like Pandora.
- Campaigning Strength: Aggressive holiday advertising and promotions likely enhance Pandora’s Black Friday appeal.
Barnes & Noble
While we predict book retailers will remain steady at a predicted increased of +1.67%, Barnes and Noble is expected to surpass that trend with a large increase in visitors of +11.64%.
The resurgence of Barnes & Noble can be attributed to:
- Bookstore Renaissance: A broader cultural shift toward physical books and “slow living” has revitalized bookstores as experiential retail destinations.
- Community Appeal: The chain has leaned into being more than a retailer, offering events, cozy spaces, and café experiences that attract holiday shoppers.
- Gifting Category: Books remain a go-to gift for many, with Black Friday deals providing strong value incentives.
- Unique Appeal vs. Amazon: Some consumers actively choose physical bookstores over Amazon for the in-store browsing experience or to support brick-and-mortar stores.
Nike
While some brands are bucking trends, some big names are seeing a large reduction in foot traffic this Black Friday. Nike’s decline could reflect:
- Market Saturation: The brand has long dominated the athletic footwear and apparel market, possibly leading to diminishing novelty or urgency to shop there.
- Inventory Issues: Reports of inventory gluts earlier in the year might discourage heavy discounting or create a perception of fewer fresh products.
- Competitor Strength: Rivals like Adidas, Puma, and New Balance might be stealing share through more targeted collaborations or innovative marketing. Economic Pressure: High-priced items like Nike sneakers could deter price-conscious consumers in favor of deeper discounts elsewhere.
Best Buy
Best Buy, a staple for electronics shoppers during the holiday season, is facing a decline with an expected -5.96% drop in foot traffic.
This prediction reflects broader trends impacting the electronics retail landscape.
- Consumer Electronics Slowdown: Many people upgraded devices during the pandemic, reducing the need for big-ticket electronics purchases.
- Competition from Online Retailers: Amazon and other e-commerce platforms might siphon traffic from brick-and-mortar stores with convenience and price-matching.
- Economic Concerns: With inflationary pressures, fewer consumers may prioritize tech purchases this Black Friday.
- Shift in Black Friday Dynamics: A trend toward earlier deals and Cyber Monday might reduce in-store traffic for Best Buy specifically on Black Friday.
True Religion Apparel
While the projected decline in foot traffic for women’s and men’s clothing retailers stands at 5.2%, the landscape isn’t entirely bleak. Some men’s clothing retailers are experiencing a resurgence as seen in our predictions by a 21.69% increase in foot traffic to True Religion Apparel.
- Strategic marketing campaigns: True Religion has used strategic influencer collaborations to grow its customer base in 2024.
- High customer loyalty: The brand conducted a customer loyalty survey and found it had a more than 10% higher than its competitor peer set, including mega brands like Levi’s, Nike, Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren.
At midnight on Black Friday we will release our instant Black Friday retail performance write up based on super low latency data. Sign up to our newsletter so you don’t miss it.
Report summary
Our analysis anticipates a slight overall decline of –1.62% in-store foot traffic for Black Friday 2024.
Despite the general downturn, jewelry stores are expected to experience a favorable increase of 2.53%. However, the clothing sector may see a decrease, with women’s and men’s categories both projected to fall by 5.2%.
Notably, specific brands like New Balance and Pandora are expected to defy the trend with significant gains of 24.61% and 16.15%, respectively.
Meanwhile, traditional retail giants such as Nike and Best Buy might face challenges, with expected declines of 11.4% and 5.96% in foot traffic.
At midnight on Black Friday we will release our instant Black Friday retail performance write up based on super low latency data. Sign up to our newsletter so you don’t miss it.
