Black Friday Store Visits Dip Slightly: A -1.85% YoY Decline
Black Friday store visits dipped slightly by –1.85% YoY, reflecting shifts in shopping habits as consumers embraced early discounts and online options. Physical retail remains key, with extended sales spreading traffic across the season.
This report contains a full breakdown of Black Friday store performance across the US. Our model combines over 15 datasets including ground truth to accurately measure store visits to retail stores.
Summary of this report:
• Overall Visits Decline: Black Friday store visits fell 1.85% YoY, reflecting economic pressures and e-commerce competition.
• Essentials Hold Steady: Categories like grocery stores and book stores (+2.08%) grew as consumers prioritized necessities and affordable gifts.
• Luxury with Meaning: Jewelry (+3.17%) outperformed, driven by demand for personalized and meaningful gifting options.
• Apparel and Specialty Retail Decline: Clothing (-6.50%) and furniture (-2.46%) suffered from discretionary spending cuts and online competition.
• Sustainability Grows: Used merchandise stores (+0.93%) showed modest growth as consumers embraced thrift and sustainable shopping trends.
1. Modest Growth in Essentials and Affordable Indulgences
Categories:
• Florists (+2.09%)
• Book Stores (+2.08%)
• Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (+2.04%)
• Convenience Stores (+2.01%)
• Supermarkets and Grocery Stores (+2.18%)
Trends:
Affordable Luxuries: Flowers and books are popular, low-cost indulgences or gift options that align with the ongoing trend of “small joys” during economic uncertainty.
Essentials and Comfort: Food and beverage categories saw stable performance, indicating that consumers continue prioritizing necessities and home-centric celebrations.
Sustainability and Mindful Choices: The growth in book stores reflects a cultural shift toward slow living and tactile, experiential gifts.
Interpretation: These categories are buoyed by their relevance to both gifting and everyday needs, with steady demand even amidst economic challenges.
Brand example: Books-A-Million + 5.97%
Books-A-Million’s growth reflects the sustained interest in physical books as experiential gifts and the broader trend toward “slow living.” The brand benefits from a loyal customer base and a well-executed holiday campaign that emphasizes books as meaningful, timeless gifts.
2. Growth in Jewelry (+3.17%)
Trends
Accessible Luxury: Jewelry remains a favored gifting choice, particularly brands offering customizable and meaningful options (e.g., Pandora or local artisan designs).
Cultural Trends: With the resurgence of weddings, parties, and in-person events, jewelry has regained prominence as a fashion accessory.
Interpretation: Jewelry benefits from its dual role as a personal indulgence and an ideal gift for the holiday season.
Brand example: Kay Jewelers +8.9%
Kay Jewelers’ growth underscores the trend toward affordable luxury, with consumers seeking personalized and meaningful gifts for loved ones. Strong holiday promotions and campaigns like “Every Kiss Begins with Kay” reinforce its relevance as a go-to jewelry retailer during the gifting season.
3. Secondhand and Sustainability Gains
Category: Used Merchandise Stores (+0.93%)
Trends
Thrift Shopping: The rise of sustainable fashion and cost-consciousness is keeping secondhand stores in positive territory.
Circular Economy: Gen Z and Millennials are driving the trend of reusing and recycling, making secondhand gifting an acceptable and trendy choice.
Interpretation: Slight growth reflects the balance between increasing awareness and competition from online secondhand platforms.
Brand example: Buffalo Exchange +1.78%
Buffalo Exchange’s modest growth highlights the rising popularity of thrift shopping driven by sustainability-conscious Gen Z and Millennials. However, the limited in-store growth suggests increasing competition from online resale platforms like Depop and Poshmark.
4. Declines in Discretionary and Apparel Spending
Categories:
• Men’s Clothing Stores (-6.34%)
• Women’s Clothing Stores (-6.50%)
• Children’s and Infants’ Clothing Stores (-6.61%)
• Clothing Accessories Stores (-6.66%)
• Department Stores (-6.85%)
• Shoe Stores (-3.74%)
Trends
E-Commerce Shift: Online shopping continues to erode brick-and-mortar sales, with clothing being one of the most dominant e-commerce categories.
Inventory Challenges: Overstock and a lack of fresh, desirable items in stores are likely factors in apparel’s poor performance.
Economic Concerns: Inflation and tighter budgets may lead consumers to prioritize essentials over discretionary spending.
Interpretation: Brick-and-mortar clothing retailers face structural challenges, exacerbated by price sensitivity and e-commerce competition.
Brand example: Foot Locker – 11.13%
Foot Locker’s steep decline reflects challenges in discretionary apparel and footwear spending. The brand faces heightened competition from e-commerce players and trendier competitors like New Balance, coupled with inventory challenges that reduce consumer interest.
5. Declines in Specialty and Non-Essential Retail
Categories:
• Office Supplies and Stationery Stores (-4.27%)
• Pet and Pet Supplies Stores (-3.61%)
• Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores (-1.97%)
• Furniture Stores (-2.46%)
• Electronics Stores (-1.68%)
• Household Appliance Stores (-1.61%)
• Hardware Stores (-3.71%)
Trends
Post-Pandemic Normalization: Categories like electronics, furniture, and hardware surged during the pandemic but are now experiencing softer demand as consumers shift back to experiential spending.
Competition from Online Retailers: Many of these categories are losing share to online platforms, which offer convenience and broader product selections.
Reduced Holiday Spending: Non-essential categories are taking a hit as consumers allocate more of their budgets toward necessities or high-priority gifts.
Interpretation: These categories reflect shifting priorities, where discretionary and specialty spending is being de-prioritized in favor of practical or essential purchases.
Brand example: Crate and Barrel -10.5%
Crate and Barrel’s decline is tied to the post-pandemic cooling of home improvement spending. Consumers are shifting their budgets toward experiences and necessities rather than big-ticket home goods, leading to weaker in-store traffic.
6. Modest Declines in Beauty and Health
Categories:
• Food (Health) Supplement Stores (-1.70%)
• Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies, and Perfume Stores (-1.60%)
Trends
Wellness Boom Cooling Off: While interest in health and wellness remains strong, these categories may be plateauing after years of growth.
E-Commerce Competition: Beauty products, in particular, thrive online due to personalized shopping tools and subscription services.
Interpretation: These declines suggest that the brick-and-mortar aspect of health and beauty retail is struggling to compete with online convenience and deals.
Brand example: Sephora -3.55%
Sephora’s decline highlights the ongoing e-commerce shift in beauty retail, with consumers increasingly turning to online platforms for convenience and personalization. The drop also reflects tighter budgets, as beauty products may be deprioritized in favor of essential purchases during economic uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
1.Essentials Hold Steady: Food, alcohol, and convenience stores highlight the prioritization of necessities and affordable indulgences in an economically uncertain environment.
2.Discretionary Spending Declines: Clothing and specialty retail categories are struggling due to shifting consumer priorities, rising online competition, and tighter budgets.
3.Luxury with Meaning Wins: Jewelry and florists benefit from their status as meaningful, giftable categories, aligning with consumer desires for sentimentality and value.
4.Sustainability Grows Slowly: Modest gains in used merchandise stores underscore the growing but not yet dominant influence of sustainable shopping habits.
5.E-Commerce Competition Intensifies: Across nearly all struggling categories, the shift to online shopping continues to erode brick-and-mortar performance, particularly for apparel and specialty goods.
