This is a report on the 2025 Back-to-School season. We have an insteractive dashboard where you can view this data in a live environment, to view that please click here →
Executive Summary
- Main Trend: The back-to-school season was dominated by a last-minute shopping rush, with consumer behaviour shifting towards consolidated, efficiency-focused trips.
- Peak Season: The season’s primary peak occurred in the second half of August, with median foot traffic across all categories hitting a high of +3.6% YoY in the week of August 10th.
- Category Winners: General Merchandise Stores were the top performers, seeing a peak in traffic of +7.2% YoY. Department stores and Book Stores also saw healthy growth.
- Category Strugglers: Shoe Stores faced the most significant challenges, with foot traffic plummeting to a low of -16.9% YoY during the season.
- Key Shopping Moments: A mid-July sales event created a crucial secondary peak (+3.1% YoY), while the pre-July 4th holiday weekend marked the season’s low point (-5.1% YoY).
- Venue Preference: Non-Mall locations consistently outperformed traditional Malls, with a peak of +3.6% YoY compared to the Malls’ peak of +3.2% YoY, highlighting the consumer preference for convenience.
The 2025 back-to-school season was defined by a significant shift towards last-minute, consolidated shopping trips, fundamentally altering the retail landscape. Analysis of foot traffic data reveals that after a challenging start to the summer, the season reached a clear and potent peak in the second half of August, with median traffic across all categories hitting a high of +3.6% YoY the week of August 10th.
The primary beneficiaries of this trend were retailers offering broad, convenient selections. General Merchandise Stores saw a peak in traffic of +7.2% YoY. Conversely, specialty retailers, particularly Shoe Stores, faced a severe downturn, hitting a low of -16.9% YoY in early August.
Key events significantly influenced shopper behaviour. A mid-July sales event created a surprising “halo effect,” lifting brick-and-mortar traffic by +3.1% YoY, while the pre-July 4th holiday period caused a predictable dip to -5.1% YoY. A pivotal finding was the consistent outperformance of Non-Mall locations, which peaked at +3.6% YoY, over traditional Malls (peaking at +3.2% YoY). This analysis of the season’s trends provides crucial, data-driven insights into brick-and-mortar retail’s potential for the upcoming holiday season and beyond.
The Seasonal Shopping Cadence: A Story of Hesitation and Urgency
The rhythm of the 2025 back-to-school season told a clear story of shifting consumer priorities, moving from early-summer hesitation to a powerful, concentrated peak driven by urgency.
The season began with volatility. After a brief lift in mid-June, traffic dipped into negative territory the week of June 22nd (-1.1% YoY). This dip can be interpreted as a post-holiday lull following Father’s Day. This softness was immediately compounded by a far more significant drop in the week of June 29th, where traffic fell to -5.1% YoY, the lowest point of the summer. This major dip is directly attributable to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, a period when consumer focus shifts dramatically from retail to travel and leisure.
However, the season found its true starting point in mid-July. The week of July 13th marked a crucial secondary peak, with median traffic rising to +3.1% YoY. This lift, coinciding with Prime Day sales, suggests a powerful “halo effect” that stimulated a broader shopping mindset. Following this, the season built momentum towards its grand finale, with the week of August 10th (+3.6% YoY) emerging as the primary peak where the majority of back-to-school foot traffic was concentrated.
Category Performance: The Great Consolidation
The clearest narrative from the 2025 season is the widening gap between one-stop shops and specialty retailers, with the data showing a dramatic difference in performance.
- Category Winners:
- General Merchandise and Department Stores: These categories were the undisputed champions. Department stores saw a peak of +4.9% YoY in late August, while General Merchandise stores peaked at a powerful +7.2% YoY in mid-August.
- Book Stores: This category also performed admirably, showing consistent positive growth and peaking at +3.8% YoY in early August.
- Category Strugglers:
- Shoe Stores and Clothing Stores: These specialty categories experienced a dramatic downturn. Clothing stores struggled to gain traction, peaking at just +2.9% YoY. Shoe stores saw the most severe decline, with traffic plummeting to a staggering -16.9% YoY in early August.
The timing of peak foot traffic (based on median performance) varied significantly by category, revealing the different stages of the back-to-school shopping list:
- Early August Peak (Week of Aug 3rd): Book Stores (+3.8%), Electronics Stores (+2.6%)
- Mid-August Peak (Week of Aug 10th): General Merchandise (+7.2%), Clothing Stores (+2.9%)
- Late August Peak (Week of Aug 24th): Department Stores (+4.9%)
- Last-Minute Peak (Week of Aug 31st): Shoe Stores (-0.3%)
These staggered peaks tell the story of the modern back-to-school shopping list. The season begins with a focus on core, functional supplies as shoppers visit Book and Electronics Stores first. The main wave follows in mid-to-late August, when consumers flock to General Merchandise and Department Stores. Finally, the anomalous late, and barely-negative, peak for Shoe Stores suggests a niche, last-minute role, fulfilling specific needs after the primary shopping trips are complete.
The Battle of Venues: Mall vs. Non-Mall Performance
A pivotal trend this season was where shoppers were going. The data shows a distinct and consistent consumer preference for the convenience of non-mall locations. Non-mall venues outperformed traditional malls in 11 out of the 14 weeks measured. The performance gap widened during the peak shopping weeks. For example, during the August 10th peak, non-mall locations saw traffic grow by +3.6% YoY, while malls lagged slightly behind at +3.2% YoY. This reinforces the idea that the back-to-school shopper is “mission-driven,” prioritising retailers that facilitate a targeted and swift shopping experience.
Regional Analysis: A National Divide
Foot traffic performance was not uniform across the country, with the data showing a clear geographical pattern.
- Leading Regions: The Midwest and Northeast were the leaders. The Northeast peaked with +4.9% YoY growth, and the Midwest saw a high of +4.8% YoY, both in late August.
- Lagging Regions: The South and West showed more subdued growth, peaking at +3.8% and +3.4% respectively.
The timing of these regional peaks also tells an important story about the season’s staggered start across the country:
- Early August Peak (Week of Aug 3rd): South (+3.8%)
- Mid-August Peak (Week of Aug 10th): West (+3.4%)
- Late August Peak (Week of Aug 24th): Midwest (+4.8%), Northeast (+4.9%)
This staggered timeline, which sees the season’s momentum begin in the South and West before moving north, almost certainly reflects different school start dates. This geographic variance underscores the critical need for national retailers to move away from a one-size-fits-all marketing calendar and employ regionally-tuned strategies.
Strategic Implications & The Holiday Outlook
- Align Operations with a Last-Minute Rush: The consumer habit of waiting until the last minute is the new norm.
- Make Convenience the Core Currency: The dominance of one-stop shops and non-mall venues is a clear mandate from consumers.
- Serve the High-Intent Mission: The physical store is no longer primarily for discovery; it is for purposeful, needs-based shopping trips.
Taken together, these points form a cohesive strategy for the holiday season. Retailers must prepare for a highly concentrated peak in foot traffic in the final shopping days. They must win on convenience, which means tangible benefits like curated gift sections and efficient checkouts. Finally, success requires operational excellence. Converting high-intent traffic into sales depends on having knowledgeable staff and guaranteed stock of popular items. The retailers who embrace this new reality of the mission-driven shopper will be best positioned to win the holidays.
