Christmas remains the bigger retail traffic driver in the US, but Halloween is showing signs of renewed momentum in some categories. An analysis of retail visits from 2020 to 2025 reveals how the two seasonal occasions compare across confectionery stores, toy and game retailers, supermarkets, and department stores.
For retailers, the difference matters. Halloween offers an opportunity to capture seasonal demand in October, while December brings a broader shopping and grocery peak. But the latest figures also show that higher seasonal traffic does not automatically mean year-over-year growth.
Using US retail visit data from Otto by PassBy, we compared October and December traffic patterns to understand which categories benefit most from each holiday, where seasonal demand is changing, and what retailers can learn from the trends.
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Key takeaways
- December attracts more visits than October across all four categories analysed. In 2025, December traffic was approximately 65% higher than October for confectionery stores, 47.5% higher for hobby, toy and game stores, and 15% higher for supermarkets.
- Confectionery stores recorded a Halloween-season rebound. October visits grew 7.3% year over year in 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024.
- Toy and game retailers showed signs of stabilisation in October. Visits increased 0.8% in 2025 after two consecutive years of decline, although December visits continued to fall.
- Supermarkets experienced a much larger December peak. December 2025 generated approximately 301 million more visits than October, despite traffic declining 1.7% year over year.
- Department stores faced continued traffic declines. Visits fell year over year in December for three consecutive years, with the decline reaching 6.7% in 2025.
The overall picture is clear: Christmas remains the larger seasonal traffic event, but performance varies by retail category, and neither holiday guarantees year-over-year growth.
Halloween vs. Christmas shopping period: What happened to retail foot traffic in 2025?
Monthly retail foot traffic data totals show that December attracts more retail visits than October, but daily data reveals a more nuanced picture. Comparing the eight-day periods from October 24–31 and December 24–31, 2025, shows that Halloween-period traffic grew year over year, while the Christmas-period total declined.
Across all US retail categories, visits increased 3.06% during the Halloween period, adding approximately 129.5 million visits compared with the same dates in 2024. During Christmas week, visits fell 6.7%, representing approximately 340.7 million fewer visits.
The contrast suggests that the two periods experienced very different year-over-year trends in 2025. However, because the dates fall on different weekdays from year to year, calendar effects should be considered when interpreting the daily changes.
Halloween traffic rose as Christmas traffic fell
| Metric | Halloween period | Christmas period |
| Dates analysed | Oct 24–31 | Dec 24–31 |
| Year-over-year change | +3.06% | −6.7% |
| Busiest day | Saturday, Oct 25 | Friday, Dec 26 |
| Strongest daily YoY growth | Oct 31: +25.8% | Dec 29: +6.8% |
| Sharpest daily YoY decline | Oct 26: −28.0% | Dec 28: −29.5% |
Source: PassBy USA visits dataset. Figures cover all retail categories.
Christmas generated approximately 380 million more visits than the Halloween period in 2025, despite its negative year-over-year growth. This illustrates an important distinction: a period can attract more total visits while performing worse than the same period a year earlier.
Halloween ended on a high, while Christmas traffic weakened after the holiday
The daily patterns differed considerably.
During the Halloween period, visits rose sharply on Friday, October 24, and Saturday, October 25, before falling on Sunday. After further declines on Monday and Tuesday, traffic returned to positive year-over-year growth on Wednesday and accelerated toward Halloween itself. October 31 recorded 613.1 million visits, up 25.8% from the same calendar date in 2024.
Christmas followed a different pattern. Christmas Eve recorded modest growth of 1.1%, but visits declined on Christmas Day and remained below year-earlier levels on December 26–28. Sunday, December 28, recorded the largest daily decline, at 29.5%. Visits rebounded on Monday, December 29, rising 6.8% year over year.
The post-holiday weekend was therefore a significant weakness for Christmas-period traffic, whereas Halloween’s strongest year-over-year result occurred on the holiday itself.
Read more: Halloween In-depth Data Analysis for the Retail Industry in October
What does this mean for retailers?
The findings highlight why seasonal retail planning benefits from daily rather than monthly analysis.
- Plan for different peak days. The busiest day in the Halloween period was the Saturday before the holiday, while the busiest Christmas-period day was December 26. Retailers can use historical traffic to align staffing and store operations with anticipated demand.
- Look beyond the headline growth rate. Halloween-period traffic increased overall, but the daily results included a substantial Sunday decline. Christmas-period traffic fell overall, despite positive growth on Christmas Eve and December 29.
- Distinguish seasonal demand from calendar effects. Halloween fell on Friday in 2025, compared with Thursday in 2024. Christmas Day fell on Thursday in 2025, compared with Wednesday in 2024. These shifts change the weekday mix and can affect direct date-to-date comparisons.
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1. Confectionery stores: Halloween is gaining momentum, but Christmas leads
Halloween and Christmas are both important seasonal occasions for confectionery retailers. October brings demand for sweets and chocolate associated with Halloween, while December adds holiday gifting, celebrations and seasonal treats.
The traffic data suggests that October is becoming a stronger contributor to the category’s performance, even though December remains the larger month for visits overall.
| Year | October YoY growth | December YoY growth |
| 2021 | +41.9% | +46.1% |
| 2022 | +12.6% | +11.4% |
| 2023 | +1.8% | +9.1% |
| 2024 | +2.2% | −0.1% |
| 2025 | +7.3% | +5.6% |
Source: Otto by PassBy. US confectionery store visits.
October growth accelerated in 2025
After two years of relatively modest October growth, confectionery store visits increased 7.3% year over year in 2025. That was a substantial improvement on the 2.2% recorded in 2024.
December also returned to growth, rising 5.6% after a slight decline the previous year.
The acceleration in October suggests that Halloween-season demand may be an increasingly important opportunity for specialist confectionery retailers. However, monthly traffic alone cannot establish how much of that growth was directly attributable to Halloween.
Christmas still brings the larger traffic peak
December attracted more visits than October in every year analysed. In 2025, December traffic was approximately 65% higher than October.
The longer-term comparison also favours December: visits increased 87.2% between 2020 and 2025, compared with 78.3% in October. These figures should be interpreted cautiously because 2020 was affected by the pandemic.
What this means for retailers: Halloween offers a meaningful seasonal opportunity, but it should complement rather than replace Christmas planning.
2. Hobby, toy and game stores: October stabilises as December traffic declines
For toy and game retailers, Halloween can drive demand for costumes, themed toys, collectibles and party products. December, however, coincides with the main holiday gift-buying season.
The data shows that December continues to attract more visitors, but the category has faced several years of declining traffic.
| Year | October YoY growth | December YoY growth |
| 2021 | +37.9% | +56.2% |
| 2022 | +6.6% | +1.8% |
| 2023 | −4.8% | −3.0% |
| 2024 | −2.4% | −4.6% |
| 2025 | +0.8% | −1.7% |
Source: Otto by PassBy. US hobby, toy and game store visits.
October returns to growth
After declining in both 2023 and 2024, October visits edged up 0.8% in 2025. This suggests that traffic may be stabilising, although the increase is too modest to indicate a strong acceleration in Halloween-related shopping.
December presents a more challenging picture. Visits declined for three consecutive years, falling from 117.64 million in December 2022 to 107.02 million in December 2025—a reduction of approximately 9%.
December still recorded approximately 47.5% more visits than October in 2025, underlining the importance of the Christmas shopping season despite the recent decline.
A seasonal peak is not the same as a growing market
The distinction between absolute traffic and year-over-year growth is important here. December can remain the busiest month while attracting fewer visitors than it did in previous years.
The strong growth recorded in 2021 also reflects the pandemic recovery, making it difficult to use that year as a normal benchmark for seasonal demand.
What this means for retailers: October’s return to positive growth could provide an opportunity to test seasonal promotions and themed merchandise earlier in the holiday period.
3. Supermarkets: Christmas delivers a much bigger traffic peak
Unlike confectionery or toy stores, supermarkets benefit from a broad range of seasonal purchasing occasions. Halloween can bring demand for sweets, snacks, party food and ingredients, while December visits combine everyday grocery shopping with holiday meals, entertaining and celebrations.
That broader shopping mission is reflected in the traffic data.
| Year | Oct YoY | Dec YoY |
| 2021 | +4.8% | +12.7% |
| 2022 | +1.5% | −0.8% |
| 2023 | −3.0% | +2.2% |
| 2024 | −2.1% | −1.7% |
| 2025 | +1.7% | −1.7% |
Source: Otto by PassBy. US supermarket visits.
December generates hundreds of millions of additional visits
Supermarket traffic remained relatively stable over the longer term in October, increasing from approximately 1.96 billion visits in 2020 to 2.01 billion in 2025—a gain of 2.7%.
December grew more over the same period, rising from approximately 2.10 billion to 2.31 billion visits, an increase of 10.4%.
In 2025, supermarkets recorded approximately 301 million more visits in December than in October, equivalent to around 15% more traffic.
However, December traffic declined 1.7% year over year in both 2024 and 2025. The seasonal peak therefore remains substantial, but it has not increased every year.
Halloween is a smaller event within a much larger shopping category
For supermarkets, Halloween is one of several occasions that can influence October visits. Grocery shopping continues throughout the month, so changes in total traffic cannot be attributed solely to Halloween preparations.
December’s larger peak is consistent with the additional grocery trips associated with holiday meals and gatherings. Nevertheless, identifying the precise contribution of those activities would require more detailed data on visit timing and shopping behaviour.
What this means for retailers: Supermarkets can use October to assess early seasonal demand and December to prepare for a much larger traffic peak.
4. Department stores: Christmas remains the bigger season, but traffic is under pressure
Department stores typically offer a broad range of seasonal merchandise, including clothing, accessories, beauty products, homeware and gifts. Both Halloween and Christmas can influence shopping behaviour, but December has traditionally been an important gift-buying period.
The data confirms that December remained the higher-traffic month throughout the period analysed. It also shows that both months have faced recent declines.
| Year | Oct. YoY growth | Dec. YoY growth |
| 2021 | +27.0% | +36.0% |
| 2022 | +2.7% | +7.5% |
| 2023 | −3.3% | −1.3% |
| 2024 | +0.0% | −5.0% |
| 2025 | −3.3% | −6.7% |
Source: Otto by PassBy. US department store visits.
December traffic has fallen from its 2022 peak
December visits peaked at approximately 829 million in 2022, before declining in each of the following three years. By 2025, December traffic was down 6.7% year over year.
October also peaked in 2022, at approximately 501 million visits. Traffic subsequently declined in 2023 and 2025, while 2024 was flat year over year.
The declines suggest that department stores have struggled to maintain previous traffic levels during both seasonal periods. However, the data does not establish whether this reflects changes in shopping preferences, competition from other retail channels, store closures or other factors.
The unusually high growth recorded in 2021 also reflects the post-pandemic recovery rather than a typical year of seasonal expansion.
What this means for retailers: Department stores should look beyond the size of the December peak and investigate how individual locations perform relative to comparable stores and local competitors. A seasonal decline across the category does not necessarily mean every store is losing traffic at the same rate.
Halloween vs. Christmas: What the data tells us
Across the four categories, Christmas consistently generated more visits than October. But the scale and direction of year-over-year growth varied.
| Retail category | October 2025 growth | December 2025 growth | Main finding |
| Confectionery | +7.3% | +5.6% | Both months returned stronger growth |
| Hobby, toy and games | +0.8% | −1.7% | October stabilised as December declined |
| Supermarkets | +1.7% | −1.7% | October grew while December fell |
| Department stores | −3.3% | −6.7% | Both months declined, particularly December |
Year-over-year change in visits. Source: Otto by PassBy.
Three conclusions stand out.
- December is the larger traffic occasion. Across these categories, the Christmas shopping period attracts more visits than October. The difference is particularly pronounced for confectionery stores, toy and game retailers, and supermarkets.
- Halloween’s contribution differs by category. Confectionery stores recorded the strongest October growth in 2025, while toy and game stores moved back into positive territory. Supermarkets saw modest growth, and department stores continued to decline.
- The busiest month is not necessarily the fastest-growing month. Supermarkets and toy and game retailers illustrate this clearly: December still attracts more visits, but recent year-over-year performance has been weaker than October’s.
For retailers, the opportunity is to understand not only when traffic peaks, but also how those peaks are changing, which locations benefit most, and whether seasonal campaigns are translating into additional store visits.
About our data
This analysis uses US retail visit data from Otto by PassBy, comparing October and December from 2020 to 2025 across confectionery stores, hobby, toy and game stores, supermarkets, and department stores.
Year-over-year growth measures the change in visits relative to the same month in the previous year. The 2020–2025 comparisons provide additional context but should be interpreted cautiously because pandemic-related disruption affected the baseline.
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Frequently asked questions
Is Halloween or Christmas bigger for retail foot traffic?
In the four US retail categories analysed—confectionery, hobby/toy/game stores, supermarkets and department stores—December attracted more visits than October in every year covered by the data. The size of the difference varied by category.
Which retail category saw the strongest October growth in 2025?
Confectionery stores recorded the strongest October year-over-year growth among the four categories, at 7.3%. Hobby, toy and game stores grew 0.8%, supermarkets grew 1.7%, and department stores declined 3.3%.
Is Halloween shopping becoming more popular?
The data shows improving October traffic growth in confectionery stores and a return to modest growth in hobby, toy and game stores in 2025. These results suggest improving traffic in those categories, but they do not establish that Halloween’s overall popularity is increasing
How can retailers compare Halloween and Christmas performance at individual locations?
Retailers can compare daily or weekly visits across both periods, benchmark each location against its own historical performance, and assess differences between markets and store formats. Comparing year-over-year changes can help separate seasonal patterns from broader changes in demand.
This is best done in a market intelligence platform such as Almanac or by using a retail AI agent like Otto.