Executive Summary: The +1.17% Baseline
As the final data points settle from Black Friday 2025, the U.S. retail market has posted a 1.17% year-over-year increase in total in-store visits. This figure-representing 53.04 million individual visits compared to 52.43 million in 2024-serves as the headline for a stabilized, post-pandemic retail environment.
However, this modest topline growth masks a turbulent redistribution of market share beneath the surface. The story of 2025 is not about a rising tide lifting all boats; it is about specific sectors (Department Stores) and formats (Open-Air) aggressively capturing share from former market leaders (Beauty and Mall Specialty). While the overall pie grew slightly, the slices were cut very differently this year.
About the Data: Measuring the Physical Pulse
Before examining the trends, it is critical to define the lens through which this report views the market. This analysis is exclusively focused on physical retail performance.
- The Metric: We are measuring In-Store Visits (foot traffic). This represents a distinct physical entry into a retail location.
- The Exclusion: This report does not include e-commerce sales, digital transactions, or click-and-collect revenue where the customer does not enter the store.
- The Methodology: Data is sourced from the pass_by platform. The 2025 figures represent real-time visitation signals captured throughout the day, benchmarked against historical data from 2024.
By stripping away the noise of online sales, this report provides a pure, unvarnished look at the health of brick-and-mortar retail and the actual movement of the American consumer.
For visualisations you can see the data on our now ended live tracker here.
1. Category Deep Dive: The Department Store Shock
Data Source: Category Trends
The most significant takeaway from the 2025 data is the definitive return of the Department Store. After years of ceding ground to specialty retailers and direct-to-consumer brands, the data indicates a massive reversal in shopper preference.
- The Aggregator Wins: Department Stores posted the strongest category growth of the day at +7.9% YoY. In an era of fragmentation, consumers appeared to favor the efficiency and discovery of the one-stop apparel destination.
- The Nesting Effect: The home continues to be a priority. Home Furnishings (+3.5%) and Furniture Stores (+1.9%) saw healthy gains, suggesting that discretionary spend is still flowing toward the home environment.
- The Beauty Correction: The biggest shock is the collapse of the Health and Personal Care sector, which saw traffic plummet -7.7% YoY. This category, arguably the hottest in retail for five years, faced a sharp correction, suggesting market saturation or a significant shift in how replenishment products are purchased during holidays.
- Electronics Shift: Electronics and Appliance Stores dipped -1.6%, confirming the long-term trend of this category moving almost entirely to digital channels for Black Friday.
2. Brand Performance: The Winners & Losers
The brand-level data reveals a consumer who is highly selective-chasing extreme value in some categories while splurging on premium wellness in others.
The Value Kings: The Treasure Hunt is Alive
The off-price sector remains the dominant engine of physical retail traffic, but not all players won equally.
- The Breakout Star: Bealls Outlet was the indisputable winner of the day, posting a massive +15.4% surge in visits.
- The Pack Leaders: Ross Stores (+3.5%) and Marshalls (+2.0%) continued their steady climb.
- The Laggard: Interestingly, Nordstrom Rack saw a decline of -0.9%. This contrasts sharply with the full-line Nordstrom (+4.2%) banner, suggesting that aspirational shoppers chose the real thing this year, while value shoppers went deeper down the price ladder to Bealls and Ross.
The Wellness Wallet: Premium Grocery Surges
Black Friday is increasingly becoming a hosting holiday. The separation between premium and conventional grocery was stark.
- Premium Boom: Whole Foods Market (+11.3%) and Sprouts (+5.5%) saw explosive growth.
- Conventional Stagnation: Traditional players like Safeway (+1.2%) and Food Lion (-0.4%) were largely flat. The data suggests consumers were visiting stores not just for staples, but for event food-charcuterie, wine, and premium ingredients.
The Apparel Shift: Activewear & Mall Specialty
- Athleisure Upset: Athleta posted stellar growth of +11.2%, significantly outperforming the broader clothing category.
- Mall Teen Crisis: The data for traditional mall-based teen retailers was concerning. Charlotte Russe (-17.6%) and Claire’s (-12.0%) posted double-digit declines. Hollister (-3.1%) and Vans (-2.9%) also struggled. This cohort has likely shifted their consumption almost entirely to online platforms like TikTok Shop for the holiday.
The Beauty & Pharma Bust
Reinforcing the category-level drop, major players in the personal care space faced headwinds.
- Sephora: Visits dropped -11.1%. This is a significant deviation for a brand that is usually a traffic driver.
- Walgreens: The data shows a precipitous drop of -7.5%. While this number is extreme and may warrant further investigation into store closures or data anomalies, it directionally aligns with the broader struggles of the pharmacy retail sector compared to competitors like CVS (+7.2%).
3. The Venue Context: Open-Air Momentum
The environment in which these brands operate played a critical role in their performance.
- Non-Mall Acceleration: Standalone and open-air retail locations saw visits grow by 9.1% YoY. This format favored brands like Target (+1.9%) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (+0.1%), which are often anchor tenants in these centers.
- Mall Lag: While growing 4.9%, enclosed malls trailed their open-air counterparts. This drag helps explain the poor performance of mall-dependent brands like Charlotte Russe and Sephora.
4. Geographic Context: The Heartland Advantage
Retail performance was not geographically uniform. The Heartland of the US provided a significant tailwind for retailers with heavy footprints in the Plains and Southeast.
- Growth Zones: Kansas (+6.0%) and Oklahoma (+5.4%) led the nation. Brands with density in these states likely saw an artificial lift compared to their coastal peers.
- Stagnation Zones: New York (-0.6%) and Massachusetts (-1.4%) dragged on the national average. This coastal cooling likely impacted the aggregated numbers for brands like Nordstrom Rack or Macy’s, which have significant exposure in these dense urban markets.
Conclusion
Black Friday 2025 was a day of stability on the surface, but disruption underneath. The +1.17% topline number hides the reality that the Department Store is back, Mall Specialty is fading, and the consumer is increasingly bifurcated between extreme value (Bealls) and premium wellness. For retailers, the takeaway is clear: the rising tide did not lift all boats-it specifically lifted those that offered either a one-stop curated experience or a high-value treasure hunt.
