The back-to-school season is always a defining period for retailers, and 2024 was no exception. As students and families prepared for the new school year, shopping trends revealed significant shifts across various retail categories. The season’s momentum built steadily through late July, culminating in a surge of activity during early August, with big-box retailers, discount stores, and craft suppliers benefiting the most.
Back to school summary:
• Peak Shopping Period: Foot traffic peaked during late July and early August, with the week of August 5 seeing the highest visit share (10.53%). This suggests most families delayed back-to-school shopping until the last few weeks before school started.
• Category Trends: Discount and craft retailers experienced significant growth during the season’s peak, while big-box stores maintained a consistent flow of shoppers throughout.
• Broader Impact: The shopping patterns observed during the back-to-school season hint at broader consumer behavior trends, including the growing popularity of discount and DIY shopping for families managing tighter budgets.
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Busiest Times: When the Traffic Spiked
Looking at the busiest weeks in terms of visit share, traffic peaked during late July and early August, with the week of August 5 registering the highest overall visit share at 10.53%. This is a strong indicator that most families aimed to complete their back-to-school shopping within a few weeks leading up to the start of the school year.
However, this peak period also reflects deeper consumer behaviors and trends:
• Delayed Shopping Trends: In contrast to previous years where early July might have seen heavier traffic, the back-to-school season in 2024 saw more families delaying their shopping until the last few weeks before school. Economic uncertainty, combined with the rise of promotional events such as back-to-school sales and tax-free holidays in late July and early August, encouraged many to hold off on purchases. Shoppers were likely waiting for better deals and discounts as inflation continued to pressure household budgets.
• Impact of Online Shopping: The rise in digital shopping channels also likely played a role in pushing physical store visits toward the end of the season. Many consumers may have started their research or placed online orders earlier in the summer, while using in-store shopping during the August rush for final, last-minute purchases, or to take advantage of pickup services and in-store promotions.
• Supply Chain & Inventory Considerations: Retailers often stock their shelves more heavily in late July and early August, anticipating high demand for items such as school supplies, clothing, and technology. For consumers, this means that the best selection and deals often coincide with this period, further driving traffic during this peak time.
As we move forward in 2024, this condensed shopping period could reflect a shift in how retailers plan their promotional calendars and manage inventory. Shorter, high-traffic windows may necessitate stronger supply chain coordination and more dynamic pricing strategies to capture consumers who increasingly wait for the “right time” to shop. Retailers will also need to balance online and offline offerings to ensure that foot traffic remains steady throughout the season, rather than seeing sharp peaks and valleys.
Category Analysis: Where the Growth Happened
The 2024 back-to-school season brought mixed outcomes across different retail categories, each reflecting unique consumer priorities and behaviors.
• Big-Box Retailers: Stores like Walmart and Target were reliable hubs for back-to-school essentials. They saw consistent traffic throughout the season, with a notable rise in visit share the week of August 5, signaling a last-minute rush.
• Discount Retailers: Family Dollar, Dollar Tree, and Five Below surged earlier, peaking the week of July 29. These stores continue to attract shoppers looking for cost-effective options, aligning with broader trends in budget-conscious shopping.
• Craft & DIY Stores: Retailers like Michaels and Hobby Lobby thrived throughout the period, particularly in early August, as families prepared for both school projects and home organization ahead of the new school year. The rise of DIY culture likely played a role in these gains.
• Bookstores: Barnes & Noble saw a notable traffic jump in late July, indicating a possible return to physical books and stationery as students and parents sought both academic resources and reading materials.
Brand-Level Analysis: Key Performers and Back-to-School Insights
As we navigate through the back-to-school season of 2024, various retailers displayed different dynamics in terms of foot traffic, driven by factors like affordability, convenience, and consumer behavior shifts. Here’s an in-depth look at how key brands performed, what it says about the broader trends, and how they aligned with consumer needs during this crucial period.
Walmart & Target: Steady Players in a Shifting Landscape
Walmart and Target continue to be cornerstone destinations for back-to-school shopping, though they faced some challenges in foot traffic during the 2024 season.
• Walmart: With an initial decline of -3.13% in the week of July 1, Walmart saw further declines of -7.28% in the week of July 8 and -7.24% on July 15. Despite these drops, Walmart had a modest recovery towards the end of the back-to-school period with a 0.72% increase in the week of September 2. The early dips might suggest that consumers were seeking discounts elsewhere early in the season, with many delaying major purchases until later in the summer.
• Target: Target experienced similar fluctuations, with a -3.02% decrease in visits for the week of July 1 and a -4.83% drop by July 15. However, it too rebounded towards September with a 0.41% increase in the week of August 19. Target’s performance points to a tendency for shoppers to turn to Target later in the season, likely attracted by last-minute deals or the need for items beyond the basics, such as clothing and accessories.
Why This Is Happening: Inflation and consumer price sensitivity may have led shoppers to wait for deeper discounts, which Walmart and Target are known for closer to school start dates. Additionally, the expansion of online shopping may have eaten into their earlier season traffic, with more families choosing to shop online for convenience.
Goodwill: A Growing Player for Affordable Back-to-School Shopping
Goodwill emerged as a surprising contender during the back-to-school season, particularly in the latter half, where its visit share spiked.
• Michaels: After a slow start, Michaels saw a 6.97% rise in visits by the week of September 2, driven by demand for school projects and craft supplies.
• Hobby Lobby: Similarly, Hobby Lobby saw steady growth throughout the season, peaking at 8.62% in the week of September 2.
• Joann Fabrics: Joann Fabrics also performed well, rebounding with a 9.25% increase in the week of September 2, reflecting growing consumer interest in DIY projects.
Why This Is Happening: The rise of social media platforms like TikTok, where DIY projects and personalized school supplies are trending, has spurred interest in craft stores. Moreover, with students seeking more unique and customized items, craft stores have become crucial for creative back-to-school shoppers
Conclusion: Back-to-School 2024 and the Broader Retail Landscape
The 2024 back-to-school season tells a compelling story about consumer behavior, preferences, and the evolving retail landscape. The traffic patterns underscore a few key takeaways:
• Peak Shopping Windows: Retailers can expect the most intense foot traffic in the final weeks of July and early August, as shoppers scramble to complete their back-to-school lists.
• Rising Popularity of Discount & DIY Stores: These categories continue to thrive, highlighting a shift towards more cost-conscious and creative shopping. As families look for ways to save money or add personal touches to their purchases, these stores are reaping the benefits.
• Big-Box Resilience: Despite some year-over-year softness, big-box retailers remain critical during the back-to-school period, offering a comprehensive selection that meets the diverse needs of families.
These insights into the 2024 back-to-school shopping season reflect broader consumer trends that are reshaping the retail landscape. Understanding how and when shoppers make their purchases during these key periods is crucial for retailers aiming to stay competitive in an ever-changing market.
