How the World Cup is affecting American retail brands
Between June 11 and 21, 2026 — the first 11 days of the FIFA World Cup — car trips to 10,548 retail markets within 10 miles of host stadiums grew +18.9% year-over-year, compared to +16.7% nationally.
That’s a measurable World Cup premium of +2.2 percentage points — consistent across grocery, restaurants, hotels, and retail.
10,548 retail markets within 10mi of stadiums show +18.9% YoY growth — +2.2pp above national average.
1,674 markets · 3 matches incl. USA vs Paraguay
Winners: Waffle House +45% · 7-Eleven +24% · Chick-fil-A +22%
891 markets · England vs Croatia, Netherlands vs Japan
Winners: Waffle House +45% · Tropical Smoothie +39% · Smoothie King +21%
1,203 markets · Mexico vs South Korea, Colombia vs Cameroon
Winners: Enterprise +27% · Smoothie King +27% · 7-Eleven +24%
413 markets · Argentina vs Algeria
Winners: Smoothie King +27% · Jersey Mike’s +23% · Taco Bell +22%
747 markets · Spain vs Cape Verde
Winners: Waffle House +45% · Smoothie King +27% · Burlington +22%
982 markets · Germany vs Curaçao, Portugal vs DR Congo
Winners: Enterprise +27% · Smoothie King +27% · Foot Locker +23%
768 markets · Qatar vs Switzerland
Winners: Taco Bell +22% · Trader Joe’s +21% · Chevron +20%
1,155 markets · Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Winners: 7-Eleven +24% · Wingstop +20% · Walgreens +20%
2,366 markets — largest catchment · Opening Ceremony, Brazil vs Morocco
Winners: 7-Eleven +24% · Jersey Mike’s +23% · Starbucks +19%
624 markets · Belgium vs Egypt
Winners: Taco Bell +22% · Trader Joe’s +21% · Wingstop +20%
Lowest uplift — 157 markets, smaller fixtures (Haiti vs Scotland, Iraq vs Norway).
Winners: Dunkin’ +19% · Burger King +19% · HomeGoods +17%
Using foot traffic to weight each brand’s share of market-level car trips, we can isolate which categories are capturing the most uplift. Bars lead at +59.1% — a massive World Cup effect on drinking establishments. Furniture (+27.8%) and car rental (+20.3%) also stand out. Even everyday categories like grocery (+19.2%) and gas stations (+19.3%) are running above baseline.
Bars at +59.1% is the standout — fans are watching games at pubs and sports bars near stadiums. Car rental at +20.3% confirms the visitor travel signal. Grocery (+19.2%) outperforming restaurants (+18.4%) suggests the World Cup effect extends into weekly shopping, not just game-day dining.
Using FT-weighted car trip attribution, we measured how 3,630 brands perform on match days vs non-match days at the same location — isolating the true game-day effect from the broader World Cup uplift.
Methodology: POI foot traffic share × market car trips, DOW-aligned (Jun 11–21 2026 vs Jun 12–22 2025). Data through Jun 21.
These brands see the biggest match-day lift — the gap between their YoY growth on game days vs non-match days.
The single biggest match-day spike for any bar brand came from an unlikely source: England vs Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on June 17. Attributed car trips to the three Hooters locations near the stadium surged +74% year-over-year.
English football culture — built around watching games in pubs and bars — translated directly to the American sports bar. Mexico vs South Korea in Miami (+27.7%) and Germany vs Curaçao in Houston (+46.9%) also drove major Hooters spikes, confirming that passionate fan bases drive bar traffic regardless of venue proximity.
For several brands, the day before a match is stronger than match day itself. Hertz peaks at +3.3% the day before (visitors arriving). McDonald’s hits +2.2% pre-match but drops to -0.7% on game day. Enterprise: +3.8% day before vs +2.7% match day.
The real commercial window isn’t the 90 minutes of the match — it’s the 24–48 hours of build-up.
| Brand | Day Before | Match Day | Day After | Non-Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertz | +3.3% | +2.8% | +1.8% | +1.2% |
| Enterprise | +3.8% | +2.7% | +1.6% | +2.6% |
| McDonald’s | +2.2% | -0.7% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| Walmart | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.9% | -1.1% |
| Academy Sports | -1.5% | +8.9% | +1.6% | -1.3% |
| Hooters | -6.1% | +4.2% | -0.2% | -7.2% |
Adidas is up across every day of the tournament window — but the match-day lift is actually negative. On match days near stadiums: +6.8%. On non-match days: +16.6%. The day after a match: +15.7%.
This isn’t a stadium-proximity story. It’s a sustained national brand halo. Kit demand is rising everywhere, every day. Nike, meanwhile, is down -9.6% on match days and -10.3% on non-match days — declining regardless.
| Brand | Match Day | Day Before | Day After | Non-Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adidas | +6.8% | +9.2% | +15.7% | +16.6% |
| Nike | -9.6% | -10.0% | -11.2% | -10.3% |
| Foot Locker | -1.4% | -1.1% | -3.3% | -2.3% |
| Under Armour | -19.3% | -14.3% | -7.7% | -11.6% |
Adidas +6.8% vs Nike -9.6% on match days. A 16.4 percentage point gap. But Adidas is even stronger on non-match days (+16.6%) — the World Cup isn’t boosting Adidas at the stadium. It’s boosting Adidas everywhere.
By weighting car trips by each brand’s foot traffic share of its market, we can attribute the World Cup uplift to 3,630 individual brands near stadiums. Here are the top 20 by attributed trips.
| # | Brand | YoY | POIs | Attr. Trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunkin’ | +18.5% | 552 | 321,334 |
| 2 | Starbucks | +19.3% | 735 | 307,223 |
| 3 | McDonald’s | +20.2% | 392 | 235,235 |
| 4 | Subway | +17.1% | 491 | 230,329 |
| 5 | Chevron | +19.8% | 283 | 147,263 |
| 6 | CVS | +18.3% | 341 | 145,400 |
| 7 | Walmart | +19.3% | 65 | 142,260 |
| 8 | Shell | +19.9% | 446 | 134,522 |
| 9 | Chipotle | +20.8% | 212 | 134,316 |
| 10 | Taco Bell | +21.5% | 232 | 124,153 |
| 11 | Domino’s | +19.6% | 209 | 117,603 |
| 12 | 7-Eleven | +23.5% | 434 | 113,793 |
| 13 | Chick-fil-A | +21.9% | 130 | 102,347 |
| 14 | Walgreens | +20.3% | 229 | 99,610 |
| 15 | Target | +18.7% | 86 | 91,595 |
| 16 | Burger King | +19.4% | 169 | 85,331 |
| 17 | Wendy’s | +16.9% | 148 | 82,705 |
| 18 | The Home Depot | +20.1% | 63 | 73,065 |
| 19 | Popeyes | +19.0% | 150 | 69,478 |
| 20 | Whole Foods | +18.3% | 56 | 62,312 |
Attributed trips = market-level car trips × brand’s foot traffic share of that market. 3,630 brands tracked across 7,959 markets within 10mi of host stadiums.
That’s 13,468,412 car trips to retail markets near host stadiums in just 11 days — up from 11,324,038 in the same period last year. The World Cup is a sustained economic engine, not a one-day event.
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